Violent Crime Up, Except Where It’s Not

Harry Jaffe, one of the deans of Washington journalism and co-author of the definitive book on modern DC political history, has a knack for getting things wrong about Georgetown. When he doesn’t think we’re a dying commercial district, he thinks the neighborhood blocked Metro. Now he’s back raising fears about a violent crime wave, and he drops Georgetown’s name ominously:

In the 2nd Police District, which includes Georgetown, assaults with a dangerous weapon, excluding guns, went up 143 percent this October compared to 2008.

Wow, those are some alarming stats. They surely mean that the Second District, and Georgetown in particular, is a dangerous place. Right?

Well, no. Jaffe is throwing around percentages not actual numbers. According to the stats GM found, the number of ADW without a gun in October for MPD2D was 17, up from 7 last year. Yes that is a 143% rise, but the plural of anecdote is not data. And these numbers are so small that they barely qualify as “plural”.

What was the YTD numbers of assaults with a deadly weapon excluding guns of 2009 vs. 2008? Pretty much the exact same. In 2008 there were 133 ADW without a gun by the end of October in the Second District. In 2009 there were 130. Throw in guns and it’s 140 for 2008 and 136 for 2009. So basically, when you consider the whole year, crime is down not up.

Moreover, the way he drops in a mention that MPD2D includes Georgetown seems to raise the the specter that even wealthy Georgetown is subject to this crime wave.  This would have the potential to be disturbing for us if it were actually true. But there were exactly three assaults with a deadly weapon in October 2008. Guess how many there were in October 2009? Yup, three.

But Jaffe’s overall point about violent assaults across the city is generally accurate, right?

Nope.

By the end of October 2008 there were 2,448 assaults with a deadly weapon across the District. This year that number was 2,193. That’s a ten percent drop.