Update: GM’s enthusiasm got a little ahead of him. The boom is probably more a result of reporting changes. Read more here.
Yesterday, the U.S. Census released the results for the 2010 Census for D.C. While many immediately focused on the city-wide numbers and how they reflect rapidly changing demographics, GM dove into the neighborhood numbers. And what he found was absolutely astounding. Since 2000, Georgetown’s population has boomed.
Specifically, since 2000 Georgetown has added a whopping 1,791 net new residents. That brings the total number of Georgetown residents to 10,315, an increase of 21.01%. Ward 2 grew the most of all the wards, and even that was only at a 16% pace. That means Georgetown was likely one of the fastest, if not the fastest, growing neighborhoods in Ward 2.
And where did this growth occur? By a long, long shot it was on the lower west side of Georgetown. Check out this map:
There was relatively modest growth of about 3-7% throughout the East Village and the north West Village. But below O St. on the west side, it was a completely different story. Between O, M and 35th, there were 107 new residents, an 11.31% increase, but west of 35th and below M, Georgetown add 1,351 people and increase of 133.50%(!).
Some will immediately jump to the conclusion that this is the result of more students in the neighborhood. That probably contributed to it somewhat (particularly since G.U.’s census population dropped by about 500 over the same time period). But GM doubts it’s the sole factor. While it wasn’t as obvious, there was some amount of construction in Georgetown over the last ten years, and much of it took place down on that side of Georgetown. For instance, there was the new 3303 Water St. apartment building and the Wormley Row condos. That’s 83 new residences right there. With the average Georgetown housing density of 1.86 per unit, that would mean about 154 new residents in those two new properties alone.
Moreover, the census block group that added 1,351 people goes all the way over to 37th st., so it covers that part of the G.U. campus that is beyond the gates. So some of that growth could be from the school putting more students in that part of its campus.
Finally, as GM has argued before, there is an ongoing baby boom in Georgetown. There are approximately 200 more children in Georgetown than there were in 2000. Some of those probably contributed to the increase.
Next week, GM will try to drill down to the block-level to see exactly where the growth happened.
The Georgetown Metropolitan 
And if Anthony Lanier and EastBanc continues to be given a green light (and a free pass on all new construction) Georgetown’s population could double in the near future. New condos atop shops, new townhomes behind the post office, condos below M, condos in old school buildings near Safeway. The Georgetown we’ve known and loved for 250 years is rapidly changing thanks to the hands off developers policy.
With the completion of GU’s SW Quad, housing some 800 students, I’d expect to see a big jump there. It will be interesting to see how this new data affects ward and ANC boundaries.
Dave: Georgetown had been constantly changing since the days of George Beale. This is nothing new. Georgetown now doesn’t look like Georgetown of 50 years ago, nor did Georgetown of 50 years ago look anything like Georgetown of 100 years ago. The challenge is acknowledging and embracing the change and managing it in the way to preserve what makes Georgetown great.
Charlie: I believe the SW quad is in the GU census tract, which is not included in these numers, mostly because I don’t think they’re particularly reliable. Students probably don’t return the census forms for their dorm rooms. And to that point, the GU census tract lost about 500 people between 2000 and 2010, and I doubt anyone thinks that’s accurate.
As for redistricting, that’s a future post. My initial take would be that Bill Starrels’ district will have to be significantly shrunk. It will probably be shifted so that it is only south of M St. And even then, Jeff’s district also might have to be shrunk a tad, so it can’t take over Starrels’ territory. Maybe the GU SMD would spread over. This would probably mean no more GU student represeting that SMD, since they usually win with so few votes, which would be easy to beat if about ten blocks of the West Village were voting in it.
GM:
As always, your analysis and take on these sorts of things are valuable and insightful. I haven’t had a chance to look at the data in any detail, but recognize there have been some significant shifts over the last ten years. I wasn’t around for this process last time but it strikes me it will be an interesting thing to watch!
Hey GM,
I may have missed it, but where is the by tract and by block raw data?
As a Georgetown student, I seem to recall some change in the way the Census counted college students. I may be incorrect, but I think the 2010 census counted students where they studied, not where they were from, i.e. their parents house.
That being said, I don’t think the blocks immediately off campus, along Prospect St had such a drastic real increase, rather, they were just counted there for the first time.
Jake: It’s not really in an easily accessible place. You get it here: http://factfinder2.census.gov/ but you have to learn-up on tract and block group maps (it gets even more confusing when you find out that some block groups were merged after the 2000 census). Plus, the website is incredibly user-unfriendly. Good luck.
Jack: I don’t think there was a change. In 2000, the census told students to respond from their college address (and for their parents not to count them). Maybe they did a better job communicating that this time. But again, I’d be surprised if the change can be attributed to a change in the response rate, since the within-the-gates numbers went down by 500. Why would they be worse at responding than the students in Nevils, etc.?
Actually, the Post has a handy map too (our numbers aren’t exactly matching, but they’re close enough):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/
They don’t go down to the block level though, so I’ll still have to do that myself.
The decline in the University’s census count is intriguing. I think that some of it might be that the 2000 number is an overcount. I can’t figure out how else Block Group 1 would get to 4,500. Even today with the additional 800 beds that came online with the Southwest Quad, I don’t believe that the student population within the gates is that high (my estimate would be that it is in fact very close to this year’s 3,900 estimate).
My guess is that there was a more concerted effort this year to have students register at their personal housing address, not the university’s 3700 O St. address, an address which may have clumped some students from outside the gates dorms (LXR, Nevils, & Village B) into BG1 instead of BG4.
The entire thing is very interesting, though, as I am sure redistricting will be. History tells us as much, at least (http://www.thehoya.com/anc-districts-redrawn-1.1885469 & http://www.thehoya.com/community-integration-inhibited-by-dividing-lines-1.1892277).
A little more density and the increased services and amenities that will come with that will make Georgetown an even better place to live.
bravo, GM, on pointing out the silliness of the first commenter here. to say that what’s happened in the last decade is the only radical change the neighborhood has seen in the last 250 years is stupid (yes, i went there—if someone is going to make blunt, blanket assertions that are so easily smacked down, they deserve to be called out as such).
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