After Spring Thaw, Georgetown Real Estate Crashes Further

First the good news: this spring, Georgetown had a mini real estate bubble. Now the bad news: like all bubbles, it popped. Hard. And it wasn’t a widely experienced bubble anyway. Check out the chart of average price per square foot over the last 12 months (in red) with the listing prices (in blue):

Courtesy of Redfin.Com

Courtesy of Redfin.Com

There appears to have been a run up in listing prices over the winter, which in turn drove up the average price of the sales. However, in spring the listing prices plummeted about 16%, and the sales prices fell even harder at 21% down, and dropping fast.

But did that uptick even represent a boom, or did it just mean only the expensive homes were being listed and sold? The overall volume numbers seem to indicate that that may have been the case:

Courtesy of Redfin.com

Courtesy of Redfin.com

So it appears that after a brief thaw in the sales of more expensive homes, the Georgetown market has continued its downward march in volume and price. GM has noticed that homes on his block have been selling at 2003 prices. Have you noticed the same?

5 Comments

Filed under Real Estate

5 responses to “After Spring Thaw, Georgetown Real Estate Crashes Further

  1. Gtowner

    I think as with any higher-end area, the lack of jumbo financing has impacted Gtown volumes. Also note too though that the number of homes on the market, which is highly seasonal, are not spiking up, so therefore I think Gtown is in pretty good shape still relative to other neighborhoods, also the average sq/ft price sold is really just returning back to normal levels pre-the wierd spike earlier this year. I think 2003 prices are a reasonable estimate and appears to be what I have seen as well. The lower end Gtown (<800k or so) homes seem to still be selling very well still. In my biased opinion for an investment I'd still be in Georgetown over just about any other place in the country over the long haul. If DC can get its act together, provide decent schools (that in fairness are improving drastically), roads and actually provide some value to residents of Georgetown, this area will be one of the premier neighborhoods in the country.

  2. jmw

    Agree 2003 (maybe 2004) prices is about right, but don’t agree with the spike/decline analysis. I’m not sure there are too many other markets in the U.S. where this sort of ppsf analysis from redfin would be more misleading. For one, redfin’s square footage data is highly dubious, given the poor quality of DC’s data. Moreover though, in particular because of the historic character and that so many properties are unique, two properties of the same square footage can have significant difference in value. For example, in May ppsf of properties sold ranged from $848 to $4,456. In June, $544 to $2,949. Though Georgetown sales prices are certainly down like everywhere else, the high-end and low-end properties alike are still selling – just with more time on the market. Perhaps the only reliable comparison to assess the trend accurately would be multiple sales over the years of the same property, or nearly identical properties.

  3. SSC

    Aside from the de facto jumbo loan moratorium which is negatively impacting luxury home sales nationwide, job security remains a critical factor in Georgetown home sales. Layoffs have reached into the higher echelons of both middle and executive management, making even the highest wage earners understandably wary of making large purchases.

    That said, a more telling statistic would reveal how well Georgetown is retaining value relative to other DC neighborhoods.
    The best even if imperfect web-based gauges I have been able to find are Trulia and Zillow, respectively:
    http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/District_Of_Columbia/Washington-heat_map/
    http://www.zillow.com/local-info/DC-Washington/Georgetown-home-value/r_121729/
    At first glance, Georgetown appears not to have fared as well as expected, but that is likely because the properties were overpriced to the extreme because of the neighborhood’s high popularity.

  4. Pingback: DC Home Prices Bounce Off the Bottom «

  5. Pingback: Ten Years | The Georgetown Metropolitan

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