Update on the Baby Boom

newborn feet - _MG_4072
Photo by Sean Drielinger.

In the first several years of the Georgetown Metropolitan, GM closely tracked what he dubbed to be a baby boom in Georgetown. It’s been, well, a long, long time since GM looked into the numbers. So where do we stand?

Back in 2014, GM looked at the American Community Survey for 2013 for age data. Although compiled by the Census Bureau, the ACS is not the capital ‘C’ Census. Like its name suggests, it is the result of surveys. And as such, is more of an estimate. For geographic areas as small as Georgetown, the estimates are for five trailing years. So if the ACS data says as of 2013 that there are 12,000 people in Georgetown, it means that on average from 2008 to 2013 there were roughly 12,000 people in Georgetown.

That throat clearing complete, the numbers GM highlighted in 2014 said the following:

2013:

  • Under the age of 5: 605
  • Between the age of 5 and 9: 257
  • Between 10 and 14: 183
  • Between 15 and 19: 553

The youngest cohort was the most striking since just three years earlier the Census has actually counted (not estimated) that only 400 children under the age of 5 lived in Georgetown. This is what GM cited as the boom.

Well what does the ACS say now? Well the talk of a boom might have been premature:

2019:

  • Under 5: 373
  • 5-9: 300
  • 10-14: 200
  • 15-19: 444

Those numbers are far more in line with the 2010 Census. And it may turn out that the supposed baby boom was nothing but a statistical blip. Which would not be surprising since the Census Bureau makes it clear that the ACS data for areas a small as Georgetown comes with really high margins of error. For instance, for 2019 the margin of error for the under 5 category is 217. Meaning that there are likely 373 little kids in Georgetown, plus or minus 217. It’s basically a complete crapshoot. We won’t know for certain what the demographics are for Georgetown until the complete 2020 Census is released.

So stay tuned…

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s